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CEE Marktberichte

CEE Offices MarketView February 2012

  • Lack of financing expected to push down vacancy across CEE
  • Vacancy rate still above 10% in most markets, with Warsaw being CEEs “Sweetheart”
  • Most office yields stable during 2011; some compression anticipated during 2012
  • Take-up slowing again on the back of an intensifying Eurozone crisis
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CEE Property Investment MarketView January 2012

  • CEE property investment in 2011 doubles compared to 2010
  • Markets with lower liquidity see increased investment in the core+-segment
  • Search for security to continue in 2012
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CEE Property Investment MarketView December 2011

  • CEE property investment slowing again, on the back of Eurozone uncertainty
  • Restricted funding availability is driving markets once more
  • Opportunities open-up for equity buyers
  • 2011 still has potential to become the third most active year in CEE history
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CEE Property Investment MarketView October 2011

  • CEE property investment resilient; September marks strongest results for 2011 to date
  • Lack of “SafeHavens” pushing money into prime real estate in CEE
  • Foreign purchasers taking over from local investor groups
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CEE Property Investment MarketView August 2011

  • YTD property investment makes 2011 already the fourth strongest year in CEE history
  • Retail property increasingly sought after
  • Industrial property investment is the third strongest performance ever in CEE
  • Economic sentiment to increase focus on prime; secondary to continue to struggle
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CEE Office Investment MarketView August 2011

  • Development completions at lowest level on record in CEE
  • Vacancy trending down in most of CE and SEE with Warsaw standing out
  • Prime capital value growth mainly driven by EE
  • Occupational recovery in Warsaw and Moscow driving office investment volumes
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CEE Big Box Logistics MarketView May 2011

  • Economic fundamentals stronger; future prospects remain uncertain
  • Development picking up in larger markets; focus shifts from capital to regional cities
  • Vacancy continues downward trend; arising opportunities not always anticipated
  • Prime rents bottoming; prime yields have compressed and investment on the rise
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CEE Property Investment MarketView March 2011

  • CEE property investment volume reaches €1.2 billion in January / February 2011
  • Liquidity increasing across CEE
  • Union Investment and Invesco buy offices in Poland; Russian activity slows down
  • Liquidity to improve further in 2011; product availability to put a brake on increases
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CEE Retail Investment MarketView February 2011

  • Economic performance slowly improves in CEE; SEE remains under pressure.
  • Retail sales are on the rise, with Poland outperforming; retailers looking to expand.
  • Decade of rapid development is over; markets moving towards more sustainable growth.
  • Diverging performance based on quality; secondary property continues to struggle.
  • CEE retail investment turnover doubled compared to 2009 and reached €1.8 billion in 2010.
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CEE Office Investment MarketView February 2011

  • Development pipeline back at 2005 / 2006 levels
  • Net absorption and vacancy remain largely unchanged despite increase in take-up
  • Recovery of prime capital values mostly driven by yield compression; rental growth not widely spread across the region
  • Office investment turnover doubles compared to a year ago
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CEE Property Investment MarketView January 2011

  • Investment activity in CEE reaches €5.0 billion in 2010, a 90% increase on 2009.
  • Renewed interest in portfolios and large single assets.
  • Overall slowing investment activity from GOEFs; one sale recorded in 2010.
  • Prime yield compression continued in most of CE and Romania.
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CEE Big Box Logistics MarketView December 2010

  • Improving economies support logistics property market fundamentals within CEE.
    Leasing activity on the rise.
  • Vacancy has declined; developers start launching new projects again.
  • Logistics rents are bottoming out and are expected to remain stable for some time.
  • Increased activity ion industrial investment market expected to continue in Q1 2011.
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Czech Republic Property Investment H1 2010

  • In total, €196 mln was invested in H1 2010.
  • Local investors were responsible for the largest transactions.
  • 75% of all investment activity occurred within the office sector.
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Big Box Czech Republic Market View Q2 2010

  • Total leasing activity increased by 264% y-o-y.
  • Growing importance of future lease agreements.
  • Vacancy rate further decreased to 15.5%.
  • Construction of 46,000 sq m started.
  • 98,900 sq m is currently under construction.
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Czech Retail Market View H1 2010

  • The gap in SC performance further grew.
  • 21,000 sq m completed.
  • Another 100,000 sq m will be completed by 2010 year end.
  • Prime rents slightly down in Prague.
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Prague Offices Market View Q2 2010

  • BB Centrum Filadelfie (28,200 sq m)was the first buiding to be delivered in 2010
  • Net take-up in Q22010 increased quarterly by 59%
  • Net absorption was negative for the second consecutive quarter
  • Vacancy rate increased to 13.8%
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CEE Office Investment MarketView H1 2010

  • CEE take-up rose by 36% in H1 2010 y-o-y and is up by 12% on H2 2009.
  • Development completions are declining and will be considerably lower in most of the markets in 2011.
  • Vacancy slightly declined in CEE for the first time since the crisis hit the markets. EE markets posted y-o-y growth in prime rents.
  • Office investment is on the rise and reached €760 million in 22 transactions in H1 2010.
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CEE Property Investment MarketView H1 2010

  • Investment turnover in Q2 reached €969 million in 28 transactions.
  • The €1.7 billion turnover achieved in H1 2010 was close to triple the volume achieved in H1 2009.
  • Prime office yields compressed in the majority of markets at varying rates. The compression remains mostly sentiment driven.
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CEE Property Investment MarketView June 2010

  • Provisional figures reveal CEE commercial real estate investment activity totalled €783 million during April-May 2010.
  • A total of 19 transactions took place. Influenced by a number of large transactions, the average lot size increased to €41 million, compared to €28 million in Q1.
  • Core CE markets continued to dominate, with the Polish market reporting strongest activity.
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Poland Office ViewPoint June 2010

Polish office market has reached the moment when the demand starts gradually to recover, but the new supply still lags behind. Numerous projects have been suspended as a beginning of construction depends on large pre-let transactions to be secured. While in the Western markets build-to-suit agreements in offices are quite common, in Poland pre-construction transactions are scarce, even if the pre-let take-up share has been claimed to be high.

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Prague Office Market ViewPoint Spring 2010

The global economic downturn and changing economic environment have created a challenging time for the Prague office market. Because of the downturn, key market indicators changed direction in 2009, with the vacancy rate increasing, prime rental levels decreasing, and lease incentives reaching levels previously unseen. The overall market moved from favouring landlords to strongly favouring tenants.

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Warsaw Office Market View Q1 2010

  • Take-up in Q1 2010 increased to 122,000 sq m.
  • Supply of new office stock in Q1 2010 reached 62,500 sq m.
  • The vacany rate for Warsaw office space levelled off at almost 8%.
  • Prime headline rents stabilised at EUR 21 - 23/sq m/month in the City Centre.
  • Prime office yields are quoted at 6.75%.
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Warsaw Retail Market View Q1 2010

  • Only two extensions of existing schemes were added to the stock in 2009.
  • 2010 pipeline remains equally limited.
  • Recent purchase of Arkadia and CH Wilenska by Unibail Rodamco concentrates best assets in Warsaw in one hands.
  • Yields have already seen a downwards pressure and compressed to 6.75%.
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Big Box Poland Industrial Market View Q1 2010

  • Positive symptoms of the market improvement - leasing activity accelerating.
  • In Q1 2010 total take-up increased by 34% q-o-q with 30% share of renegotiations.
  • Total modern stock amounts to over 6 million sq m with over 1 million sq m (18%) vacant in the whole country.
  • The number of new projects delivered dropped down and the amount of space under construction has been significantly decreased.
  • Warehouse prime yields are at 8.75% and are expected to compress slightly in a near future.
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CEE Property Investment Market View April 2010

  • Investment in property totalled a provisional €600 million in 29 transactions in CEE in Q1 2010. This turnover was up 140% y-o-y, but down about 55% on strong Q4 2009 results.
  • Institutional investors continue to focus on core CE markets, while investment activity remains low in SEE and Ukraine.
  • Limited distressed activity occurring with local investors driving regional markets.
  • Prime yield compression was recorded for prime product in certain CEE market segments in Q1 2010.
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Poland Office Destinations 2010 Edition

The majority of economic indicators show that Poland turned out to be remarkably resilient to the effect of the global financial crunch. The Polish economy is perceived as one of the most stable and developing economies in the CEE region and was the only one with economic growth the last year. The GDP growth for 2009 reached 1.7% with an increasing trend for 2010. Interest rates were cut to a record low level of 3.5%, inflation remained low and the growth of unemployment rate was restrained (12%). However the commercial property market did not cope with the crisis as well as the rest of the Polish economy, limiting its rapid development in terms of both supply and demand.

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Poland Retail Destinations 2010 Edition

Poland has proven to be considerably resilient to the current economic downturn. Poland outperforms several Euro zone countries in terms of international ratings and is the only European Union country that avoided GDP decline in any of 2009 quarters. Domestic market remains poised for further growth, but Polish economy as a 'host country' relies heavily on the Western European sources of investment and financing as well as their markets for export. Therefore further performance of the neighbouring economies, especially Germany's, remains crucial to the long term economic prosperity.

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CEE Property Investment March 2010

  • Investment in property totalled a provisional €275 million in 15 transactions in CEE in January and February 2010.
  • Investors continue to focus on core CEE markets, with just under 90% of investment turnover so far in 2010 occurring in Warsaw, Prague, Moscow and Budapest.
  • The rebound to retail investment turnover seen in Q4 2009 has continued, with retail investment transactions accounting for over half of turnover in January-February 2010.
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Ukraine Property Investment Market View H2 2009

  • Investment activity picked up in H2 2009, albeit from a very depressed level, bringing total annual turnover to only ca. $18 million (€12.5 million)
  • While direct turnover was meager compared to previous years, the market has seen a proliferation of other activities, most notably that of debt settlements by non-cash trading of distressed projects
  • As in H1 2009, cross-border investors’ appetite for local real estate remained diminished and the market was driven almost entirely by small local parties acquiring non-prime properties for opportunistic rather than strategic reasons
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Ukrainian Economy Overview H2 2009

  • Economic recovery has surfaced towards the end of 2009, but remains feeble and primarily driven by baseperiod effects
  • Election-induced political uncertainties are expected to remain in place for an extended period of time, as even in case of smooth transition of power, the next president will be tempted to call for early Parliamentary elections to consolidate his position
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Kyiv Office Market View H2 2009

  • Financial services industry continued to lose jobs in H2, shedding some 20,000 payrolls since the crisis began, but business confidence turned positive towards the end of the year for the first time in twelve months.
  • The majority of occupiers have by now processed the effects of the economic crisis on their operations, but demand for space remains heavily weighted in favor of upgrades rather than expansions.
  • Total competitive stock barely exceeded 1 million sq m on the back of 90,000 sq m of total annual development completions. Previous milestone of 500,000 sq m was reached in 2006.
  • Rents and vacancy have both stabilized in Q4 but whereas vacancy could rise further over 2010 on account of new deliveries and sluggish demand, rents will most probably stay unchanged, subject to a stable exchange rate.
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Big Box Poland Industrial Market View Q4 2009

  • Positive symptoms of the market improvement - overall vacancy decrease supported by relatively stable leasing activity.
  • In 2009 total take-up reached 983,000 sq m – 30% less than in 2008.
  • Total modern stock amounts to over 6 million sq m with over 1 million sq m (18%) vacant in the whole country.
  • The number of new projects delivered dropped down and the amount of space under construction has been significantly decreased.
  • Warehouse prime yields levelled off at 8.75 - 9% with the total investment volume registered in 2009 at over EUR 40 million.
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Warsaw Retail Market View Q4 2009

  • Only two extensions of existing schemes were added to the stock in 2009.
  • The vacancy rate for Warsaw retail space in the best shopping centres ranges between 0 - 3%.
  • Prime headline rents remain at the level of EUR 60 - 80 /sq m/month.
  • Retail investment activity in Warsaw remains scarce with only EUR 6.2 million transacted this year.
  • Prime retail yields are estimated to level off at 7%.
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Warsaw Offices Market View Q4 2009

  • Take-up in Q4 2009 reached 96,600 sq m.
  • Supply of new office stock in 2009 reached 266,200 sq m.
  • The vacancy rate for Warsaw office space levelled off at around 7%.
  • Prime headline rents stabilised at EUR 21 - 23 /sq m/month in the City Centre.
  • Prime office yields are quoted at 6.75% - 7.00%.
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Moscow Offices Market View Year End 2009

  • Exceptionally high Class A (27%) and overall vacancy rates (20%) kept rental rates at a low level throughout the year.
  • The number of deals in 2009 was 23% lower compared with 2008.
  • Deals in the central areas of the city accounted for 64% in 2009, while in 2008 these accounted for 43%.
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Budapest Offices Market View Q4 2009

  • 63,800 sq m completion in Q4 brings annual new supply to a record high of 300,200 sq m
  • Take-up went up on Q3 and reached 34,900 sq m but total leasing activity remains highly driven by renewals
  • Vacancy rate stands at 22% after increasing over two years
  • Rents are declining in most locations; rental gap is narrowing between Central and Non-Central locations
  • 90% of the active pipeline will be delivered by mid-year then new supply disappears for many quarters
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Bratislava Offices Market View Q4 2009

  • Office take-up this quarter came to 8,600 sq m in 29 transactions: one transaction less than in Q3, and with a smaller average size.
  • Annual take-up reached approximately 63,600 sq m, which is ca. 55% of total take-up recorded in 2008.
  • The Computers and Hi-Tech sector accounted for 40% of office take-up, followed by the Manufacturing sector with 18% of total take-up.
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Big Box Budapest Market View Q4 2009

  • The growth of the total modern industrial space slowed down to 12% y-o-y reaching 1,543,500 sq m
  • 170,000 sq m completed in 2009
  • Total leasing activity reached 274,700 sq m out of which net take-up accounted for 124,000 sq m
  • The growth of the vacancy rate was forecast. Due to the low net take up levels it increased up to 22%
  • Rents remained under pressure
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Big Box Slovakia Market View Q4 2009

  • In terms of supply, no new projects were delivered to the market this quarter. Total supply in 2009 reached 99,579 sq m in Slovakia.
  • The total leasing activity in 2009 reached ca. 128,000 sq m; a decrease of 57% compared to 2008.
  • Decreased new supply brought the vacancy rate down to 8.33%
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Big Box Czech Republic Market View Q4 2009

  • Vacancy rate slightly decreased to 18.6%
  • Only 8,100 sq m completed.
  • Only 63,400 sq m under construction representing 84% decrease y-o-y
  • Total leasing activity reached ca. 115,000 sq m
  • Net effective rents ranged 3.00-5.00 EUR/sqm/month.
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CEE Property Investment Market View January 2010

  • Investment activity picked up significantly in H2 2009, with turnover in H2 2009 totaling €2 billion, reflecting increasing investor confidence.
  • €2.5 billion was invested in institutional property in CEE in 2009. This was 75 % lower than in 2008.
  • Investors focused on (defensive) prime properties in 2009 and targeted Central Europe in particular.
  • The first signs of a return to more normal investment market conditions emerged.
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CEE View Point
CEE Office Development Trends

The credit crunch and subsequent economic downturn have combined to reduce significantly the confirmed office development pipeline in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) since year-end 2008. The current outlook for delivery of new office space in 2011 is far below recent years and, surprisingly, even below deliveries back in 2000 and 2001.

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CEE View Point
Risk, Retourn & Reality - CEE Office Property

Considerable negative sentiment has surrounded CEE as a region since fall 2008. While this sentiment has probably been justified with regard to certain parts of the region, other parts of CEE have been unfairly swept up by it. It has become clear that certain CEE property markets will have to go through a phase of restructuring before resuming sustainable growth.

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Zagreb Office Market View Autumn 2009

  • In 2009 take-up all but disappeared. The total figure for quarter three of 2009 was less than 10% of the previous year.
  • There is very little development activity with no major projects under construction meaning that for the next 2 years we expect no new space to be delivered.
  • Rents have decreased to just below EUR 17.00 and though a further decrease can be expected this should be minimal with vacancy rates remaining below 3%.
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Prague Offices Q3 2009

  • Renegotiations are increasingly important, accounting for ca.46% of total leasing activity in Q3 2009.  
  • There were only two new office projects delivered to the market in Q3 2009.  
  • Overall Prague vacancy stands at ca.10.6%.  
  • Prime rents in the City Centre decreased further by 1 euro to the current level of 21 EUR/sq m/month.
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BIG BOX Czech Republic Q3 2009

  • Total leasing activity exceeded 120,000 sq m, but net take-up accounted for only about 60% of this.  
  • Net absorption was negative.  
  • The overall vacancy rate increased slightly again and currently stands at 18.9%.  
  • Only 41,600 sq m was under construction at the end of Q3 2009 and no new construction was launched in Q3 2009.
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Bucharest Office Market View H1 2009

  • The city-wide vacancy rate at the end of June 2009 increased to 11%.
  • Take-up has progresively decreased in recent quarters, with up to 65,000 sq m leased in the first six months of 2009.
  • 211,000 sq m of office space was delivered in H1 2009.
  • Bucharest office stock reached 1.55 million sq m in June 2009.
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Romania Retail Market View H1 2009

  • There is an increasing performance gap between prime and secondary locations
  • 50 -60% of the total shopping centers outside Bucharest for which plans were announced on the market in 2007 and 2008 will actually be opened
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Bucharest Retail Market View H1 2009

  • There is increased uncertainity with regard topipeline development, with many projects delayed due to lack of financing.
  • New brands opened their first locations in Bucharest in 2008 and H1 2009.
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Bucharest Residential Market H1 2009

  • In the middle of June, the state approved a social program called “First Dwelling”, with the purpose of facilitating access to purchasing a dwelling through mortgage loans.
  • The “First Dwelling” Program will provide guarantees of approximately €1 billion for mortgage loans to the persons who want to buy their first dwelling.
  • Sales prices for new residential units have dropped by 15-40% in H1 2009 compared to H1 2008.
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Romania Property Investment H1 2009

  • Property investment volume in H1 2009 came to €56 million, three times lower than in H2 2008.
  • Hotels were the most traded type of property inthe first six months of 2009, with 60% of the total volume being directed toward four hotels in three cities across the country.
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Czech Retail Market View H1 2009

  • Modern SC space in the Czech Republic now exceeds 2.5 million sq m.
  • 94,000 sq m in five SCs was completed in H1 2009.
  • Pipeline for H2 2009-2010 has been greatly reduced. 80,000 sq m is expected to be completed in H2 2009.
  • Prime SC rents in Prague decreased slightly to 110EUR/sqm/month.
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Bratislava Offices Market View Q2 2009

  • Office take-up this quarter came to 16,500 sq m in 32 transactions
  • Pre-leasing accounted for 34% of take-up for the second quarter in a row, which is in line with H1 2008 results
  • The Computers and Hi-Tech sector accounted for 42% of office take-up, which is an increase from 15% last quarter.
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CEE Retail Investment H1 2009

  • The intensifying impact that the financial crisis is having on real economies across CEE began to negatively affect retail sales after strong growth in recent years.
  • Prime rents are going down in some markets, expecially for samller units (80-100 sq m), and retailers are asking for more flexibility from landlords. On the other hand, aveeragerents in prime shopping centres in markets as Poland an Czech Republic, have remained resilient thus far.
  • Investment in retail properties was slow in H1 2009, down by 92 % on H2 2008 and 94 % on H1 2008 levels. Yields moved out somewhat for shopping centres in Q2 2009, but were generally more stable than in recent quarters giving some hope that yields will bottom out later this year.
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Kyiv Offices Market View H1 2009

  • After feeling the full effect of economic contraction in mid-fall 2008 activity on the office property market declined considerably.
  • Occupier markets in H1 2009 remained weak as businesses continued to process the effects of the economic crisis on their operations.
  • The supply growth remained broadly in line with the January forecast, which was adjusted to reflect the dire liquidity situation in the country as a whole.
  • Rent and vacancy levels deteriorated significantly but first signs of stabilization may appear in H2 2009.
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Ukrainian Economy Market View H1 2009

  • The economic situation has deteriorated substantially over H1 2009, but first signs of stabilization – particularly, on the supply side – surfaced towards the end of Q2.
  • With the global crisis exposing numerous weaknesses of the nation’s economy, Ukraine now finds itself in urgent need to finally implement serious structural reforms.
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Ukraine Property Investement Market View H1 2009

  • The volume of direct property investment in H1 2009 was extremely small with most deals occurring across highly discounted and readily available work-in-progress assets, such as project on various stages of construction, land holdings, etc.
  • Banks’ unwillingness to foreclose remains one of the major impediments to capital movement, as forced sales of be completed before the distressed properties have not yet occurred on the level necessary to revitalize the market.
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Czech Republic Property Investment H1 2009

  • In total, €73.1 mln was invested in H1 2009.
  • German investors accounted for 56% of total investment volume.
  • Disparities between the price expectations of sellers and buyers persisted.  
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Big Box Slovakia Q2 2009

  • In terms of supply, completed space went down y-o-y.
  • Take-up increased by 40% q-o-q, reaching approximately the two-year average.
  • Eight out of nine leases were signed in the Greater Bratislava Area submarket.
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Prague Offices Market View Q2 2009

  • Quarterly take-up in Q2 2009 increased to 54,900 sq m.
  • New supply almost equaled the Q1 level.
  • Prague 4 and specifically the Pankrac-Budejovicka office hub continue to achieve the highest levels of take-up.
  • Prime rents in the City Centre decreased by 1 euro to the current level of 22 EUR/sq m/month.
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Big Box Poland Market View Q1 2009

  • In Q1 2009 total take-up exceeded 200,000 sq m – 55% decrease when comparing with Q1 2008.
  • Total modern stock amounts to over 5.6 million sq m with 16% vacancy rate.
  • The number of new projects handed over remained high, however the amount of space under construction decreased.
  • Developers, expecting lower demand in the next few years, have limited the number of buildings planned speculatively and are looking to build-to-suit projects.
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Warsaw Office Market View Q1 2009

  • Take-up in the first quarter 2009 reached only 45,500 sq m.
  • Supply of new office stock in Q1 2009 amounted to 86,700 sq m.
  • The vacancy rate for Warsaw office space increased to 4.5%.
  • Prime rents decreased to EUR 25 - 28 /sq m/month in the City Centre.
  • Prime office yields are at 6.75%.
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Poznan Property Market View Spring 2009

The majority of modern office buildings are located on the fringe of the historical city centre, concentrated mainly along Glogowska and Roosevelta streets and in close proximity to the Old Town market. Many modern office schemes can be also found in the western district of Grunwald and in Winogrady, a non - central area of the Stare Miasto district.

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Wroclaw Property Market View Spring 2009

Wroclaw’s increasing economic role as a capital of the province guarantees stable future growth in the service sector. It is now the second most attractive city, after Krakow, in terms of the number of BPO’s. Companies such as Siemens, Hewlett – Packard, Credit Suisse and Google have already chosen Wroclaw.

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Krakow Property Market View Spring 2009

The modern office stock in Krakow now stands at around 350,000 sq m. This number includes newly built or fully refurbished schemes of A&B-Class.

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Living Residential Warsaw Market View Spring 2009

  • The residential market is suffering from a visible slowdown.
  • Demand and supply in the residential market plummeted due to limited availability of credit.
  • Banks are tightening conditions regarding granting credit to potential borrowers.
  • Offer prices on Warsaw primary residential market dropped on average only by 3% but more discounts are achievable.
  • Weighted average price of Warsaw apartment square metre amounted to EUR 2,045 (PLN 8,995) at the beginning of 2009.
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Warsaw Retail Market View Q1 2009

  • New shopping centre stock in Poland in Q1 2009 amounted to 160,000 sq m in new 7 shopping centres.
  • In Warsaw there were no new shopping centres opened in Q1 2009.
  • The vacancy rate for Warsaw retail space in the best shopping centres ranges between 0 - 3%.
  • Prime rents are stable and are at the level of EUR 65 - 80 /sq m/month.
  • Prime retail yields are at 6.75%.
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Big Box Slovakia Q1 2009

  • All Q1 2009 take-up was of space constructed speculatively.
  • Pipeline space decreased by 76 % y-o-y.
  • Supply and take-up focused on the Greater Bratislava Area submarket.
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Slovakia Retail Market View Q1 2009

  • Despite a likely contraction of GDP in 2009, Slovakia’s economic growth is still expected to be ca. 2% above average economic growth in the Eurozone.
  • Small sized schemes continued to dominate the shopping centre market, representing a 77% out of the total shopping centre stock.
  • For 2009, we expect ca. 115,000 sq m of modern shopping space to be delivered to the market, in line with the 2008 supply.
  • We expect a shift in retailing outside of Bratislava, with a stronger pipeline in regional cities.
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Bratislava Offices Market View Q1 2009

  • Office take-up this quarter came to 23,700 sq m in 35 transactions.
  • Pre-leasing accounted for 36% of take up, an increase from 23% in Q4 2008.
  • The manufacturing sector accounted for 47% of office take-up.
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Belgrade Market View Q1 2009

  • According to estimates of the Statistical Office of the Republic of Serbia, total annual GDP in 2008 grew by 5.4 percent when compared to 2007.
  • Industrial production contracted by 19,7 % y-o-y in February 2009. Manufacturing output has dropped even more (23% y-o-y) as global trade and demand for steel and chemicals, Serbian key exports, have fallen.
  • Key policy rate has decreased from 16.5% to 15%.
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Big Box Budapest Q1 2009

  • Q1 Supply reached record level of 88,800 sq m and pipeline remains strong in Q2 as well.
  • Due to the massive supply the modern industrial stock stands at 1,463,000 sq m.
  • As expected vacancy grew further and now stands at 22.6%. Further increase of the rate is expected.
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Budapest Office Market View Q1 2009

  • Office demand maintained healthy level with only a slight decrease on Q1 2008
  • No speculative project was delivered in Q1; all completed schemes had 100% occupancy before hand-over
  • The vacancy rate for Budapest office space stands at 16.5%, remaining basically stable on Q4 2008
  • Prime rents slightly decreased to EUR 20-21 in CBD, and are under pressure across all submarkets
  • Prime yields decompressed further by 100 bps. to 7.75% but there was no transactional evidence in Q1
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Moscow Offices Market View June 2009

  • Office space take-up in the area beyond TTK fell by 45% in 1H 2009 compared with 1H 2008
  • Volume of vacant Class B office space beyond TTK may exceed 1 million sq m by the end of 2009, equal to 30% of the vacancy rate
  • Take-up volume beyond MKAD in 1H 2009 fell by almost 3.5 times compared with 1H 2008
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Ostrava Offices Market View Q1 2009

  • Since the end of H1 2008 two new office project were completed in Ostrava.
  • Vacancy rate exceeded the level of 26%.
  • Since the end of H1 2008, more than 24,000 sq m was leased in Ostrava.
  • Prime rents stood at the level of €11.50/sq m/month.
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Brno Offices Market View Q1 2009

  • Total take-up since the end of H1 2008 reached 40,400 sq m.
  • The city-wide vacancy rate increased to 18.9%.
  • Prime rents stood at 13.50 EUR/sq m/month in the Inner City submarket and 12.50 EUR/sq m/month in Outer City submarket at the end of Q1 2009.
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CEE Property Investment Market View June 2009

  • Around € 85 million was invested in institutional property in CEE in May 2009.
  • The outlook for the CEE investment market has diverged by segment. Investors continue to express interest in prime office properties in core CE markets and strong regional shopping centres with large catchment areas, but are largely avoiding the industrial market as weaker market fundamentals and short lease security create uncertain pricing.
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Poland Retail Destinations 2009

Thanks to an excellent central northern location, Poland is well predisposed to be one of Europe’s key business regions. The Polish economy remains poised for further growth, but it relies heavily on the Western European economies as markets for both its exports and for investment and financing. As a consequence, Poland’s economy can be viewed as very vulnerable and if the economic climate in Western Europe continues to deteriorate the situation may prove to be very challenging for Poland.

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Poland Office Destinations 2009

At the beginning of the year in Poland there was around 4.7 million sq m of
modern office cities located in Warsaw and seven major regional cities. The
largest and the most established market is Warsaw. However, when comparing
with other European capitals, Warsaw is still behind the mature markets. Office
density in Warsaw is currently around 1.7 sq m per capita, while the average for Europe is estimated at 6 sq m.

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CEE Offices Index Market View Q1 2009

  • The more challenging economic environment across CEE caused prime office rents to fall in many CEE cities in Q1 2009.
  • Prime office yields continued to move out across CEE causing the spread with the EU-15 weighted average prime yield to increase. Significant differences in prime office yields now exist by CEE sub-region.
  • Prime office capital values across the region fell due to the comined effect of lower prime rents in many cities and continued yield decompression.
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Prague Offices Q1 2009

  • Total take-up in Q1 2009 further decreased to 42,300 sq m.
  • New supply came in at 16% below the 5-year quarterly average.
  • Prague 4 and specifically the Pankrac-Budejovicka office hub continues to achieve the highest levels of take-up.
  • Prime rents remained stable across all submarkets in Q1 2009.
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M2 - Big Box CR Market View Q1 2009

  • As a consequence of significant warehouse space completions in Q1 2009, industrial space now exceeds 3 million sq m.
  • The vacancy rate is above 16 %, but we expect it to decrease in the longterm.
  • Space under construction decreased by 60% q-o-q with no new projects launched. Developers need to wait for pre-leases before starting construction.
  • Rents remained stable and are not expected to change in the short-term.
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Bucharest Office Market View full year 2008

  • At the end of 2008 the office stock in Bucharest reached 1,260,000 sq m out of which approximately 300,000 sq m were delivered in the last year.
  • While the take-up in 2008 was very high, approximately 275,000 sq m, the vacancy rate registered an unusual growth up to 6% in Q4.
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Romania Retail Market View full year 2008

  • Some of the developers and retailers have decided to postpone their expansion plan in the first part of 2009.
  • The Romanians' appetite for consume is still at a high level.
  • The street commercial spaces in secondary locations will be the ones to register a decrease of rent.
  • The discount stores have been the less affected by the financial crisis and continue their expansion plans as previously announced.
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Romania Investments Market View full year 2008

  • The investments volume in 2008 was of € 1,020 million, with 64% lower than in 2007, but with 420% higher than the volume of 2005.
  • 65% of the investments volume was realized by closing 3 purchases, thus confirming the fact that there is a small number of investors present on the market, but very active and with a strong buying power.
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Romania Economic Situation full year 2008

  • The annual inflation rate decreased at the end of 2008 at 6.3% (December 2008/ December 2007), from 6.6% in 2007.
  • The economic growth of Romania was 8.0% at the year’s end, after the record level of 9.3% registered at the middle of 2008.
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Bucharest Hotel Market Overview full year 2008

  • As an overview, Bucharest continues to have the highest ADR (average daily rate) from Romania and remains the most attractive city for the international investors with around 64% of the total influx of foreign direct investments (FDI) in 2008.
  • Bucharest hotel market grew with 30% in 2008, the biggest room supply increase after 1989.
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Hotels - Central & Eastern Europe Year End 2008

  • Development Pipeline affected by the lack of available funding
  • Hotel operators' development strategies will focus on Management Agreements
  • Yields will come under further pressure
  • Expect distressed sales form Q3 2009
  • RevPAR expected drop to across the region in 2009
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Ukraine Property Investment Market View full year 2008

  • A total of $413 million worth of investment transactions were completed in Ukraine in 2008. Although quite high historically, the volume is 28% down from 2007 results.
  • With developers halting active construction due to curtailed financing, the stock of distressed assets has grown substantially, potentially creating opportunities for entrepreneurial investors with a longterm perspective.
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Ukrainian Economy Market View full year 2008

  • Early Parliamentary elections were avoided in 2008 and their likelihood seems low in 2009
  • The IMF mission now active in Ukraine should bolster confidence in country’s economic policymaking
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Ukraine Retail Market View full year 2008

  • Following the spread of the global financial crisis to Ukraine in H2 2008, the previously booming retail market saw activity level drop for the first time in years.
  • The evaporation of consumer confidence and the corresponding decline in population purchasing power observed in H2 2008 led to a fall in retailers’ demand for premises.
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M² - BIG BOX UA Market View full year 2008

  • Total warehouse stock doubled in 2008 as a record level of new supply entered the market
  • Investment turnover set a record too with $89 million worth of transactions recorded in H1 2008
  • As the occupier market weakened significantly in the face of the growing crisis, the market turned from undersupply to oversupply in H2 2008
  • Instead of the anticipated boom, the market is entering a deep recession in 2009, with development activity slowing down and rents expected to fall considerably
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Kyiv Offices Market View full year 2008

  • Following the spread of global financial crisis to Ukraine, the macroeconomic situation has deteriorated sharply, depressing the previously upbeat business confidence
  • Construction activity began to ease off in Q3 with many developers cancelling or postponing the realization of office schemes
  • The demand for space subsided in Q4 and is likely to remain weak throughout 2009
  • As a result of cost-containment and downscaling campaigns unleashed by occupiers, vacancy rose steeply, pushing rental rates down for the first time in years
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Investment Market Accumulator in Poland Spring 2009

  • Investment activity slowed down, amounting to nearly EUR 2 billion in 2008 from EUR 3 billion in 2007.
  • The retail and office sectors continue to dominate the investment market, although there is an increasing interest in the industrial and hotel sectors.
  • Prime yields increased:
    • Office: 6.25%
    • Retail: 6.75%
    • Industrial: 7.75%
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Warsaw Office Market View Q4 2008

  • Take-up in 2008 reached 524,000 sq m, which is almost 6% more than in 2007.
  • Supply of new office stock in 2008 amounted to over 250,000 sq m.
  • The vacancy rate for Warsaw office space increased to 2.9%.
  • Prime rents decreased to EUR 28 - 30 /sq m/month in the City Centre.
  • Prime office yields are at 6.25%.
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Warsaw Retail Market View Q4 2008

  • New shopping centre stock in Poland in 2008 amounted to 590,000 sq m, out of which 48% was completed in Q4 2008.
  • In Warsaw there was only 39,000 sq m added to the market in 2008.
  • The vacancy rate for Warsaw retail space in the best shopping centres ranges between 0 - 3%.
  • Prime rents are stable and at the level of EUR 65 - 100 /sq m/month.
  • Prime retail yields are at 6.75%.
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BIG BOX Poland Q4 2008

  • In 2008 take-up reached a record level of 1.4 million sq m leased in the whole country.
  • Total modern stock, as of the end of 2008, amounted to over 4.8 million sq m with 10% vacancy rate.
  • The number of new projects handed over still remains very high, however the amount of space under construction has decreased.
  • Developers, expecting lower demand in the next few years, have limited the number of buildings planned speculatively and are looking to build-to-suit projects.
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Czech Republic Property Investment H2 2008

  • In total, €1062 mln was invested in 2008, which was 41% of the total volume closed last year.
  • The disparities between the price expectations of sellers and buyers continued.
  • Increased pressure on yield levels caused several price corrections on the Czech market in H2 2008.
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Czech Retail Market View H2 2008

  • Approximately 200,000 sq m of modern SC space was completed in 2008, which was the third strongest year in terms of new completions.
  • Only 30% of international retailers are present in the Czech retail market, which means there is space for new international brands to enter the market.
  • The prime rental levels in shopping centres across the Czech Republic remained stable in comparison to H1 2008.
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CEE Offices Market View Full Year 2008

  • CEE office markets continued to perform strongly in 2008 despite worsening economic conditions.
  • Demand remained strong, with CEE establishing a record for take-up in 2008. Despite this, CEE markets could not completely absorb a record amount of development completions across CEE, leading to higher vacancy rates in many markets.
  • How CEE office markets perform in the near term will depend to a large extent on individual markets’ positioning in terms of continued economic growth, vacancy rate and size of pipeline.
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Prague Offices Market View Q4 2008

  • Total take-up in 2008 proved very strong with 260,300 sq m leased.
  • New supply in 2008 achieved a historical record, with 323,100 sq m of modern office space completed.
  • Almost 50% of 2008 completions took place in Prague 4, which was also the most attractive location in terms of take-up
  • Prime rents remained stable across all submarkets in Q4 2008.
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Budapest Offices Market View Q4 2008

  • Due to outstanding pre-lets in Q4 annual take-up reached a historic new high of 330,000 sq m, which is ca. 3% up compared to 2007
  • Supply of new office stock in 2008 amounted to just below 249,000 sq m; the highest completion figure ever
  • The vacancy rate for Budapest office space stands at 16.8%, increasing 4.6 p.p. since Q4 2007
  • Prime rents remained stable at EUR 23/sq m/m in the CBD but average rents are under pressure in Non-Central areas
  • Prime office yields decompressed by 100 b.p. in a year to 6.75%
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BIG BOX Budapest Q4 2008

  • Take-up remained strong until the end of 2008, resulting in a record high of 335,000 sq m
  • Due to the high completion rate total modern industrial space grew by 30% y-o-y reaching 1,374,000 sq m
  • Vacancy fluctuated throughout 2008 and stands a 16.4%; the highest yearend level ever
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Hungarian Property Investment YE 2008

The total investment volume in H2 2008 reached EUR 257 million which is 80% higher than in H1. The total annual investment was EUR 410 million representing an 80% drop on previous year, and means a volume comparable with the level in the first years of the Hungarian commercial property market.

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CEE Property Investment Full Year 2008

  • € 9.5 billion was invested in institutional property in the CEE property market in 2008. This is 37% down from the 2007 figure, but 47% up on 2005 results.
  • Banks will remain risk averse in the first half of 2009 and therefore trading anything but the best properties will be difficult.
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MarketView M² - Big Box CR Q4 2008

In Q3 2008 the annual growth rate of the Czech economy slowed in real terms from the level of 6% at the end of 2007 to 4.2%. The slowdown was caused both by external and internal factors.

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CEE Retail Market View Autumn 2008

  • Footprint of international retailers to increase across CEE
  • Institutional investors’ focus should be on prime assets in core CEE in the short- to medium-term
  • The days of uncontrolled development are over with new opportunities arising
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Bratislava Property Market View Q3 2008

The National Statistical Office announced year-on-year (y-o-y) GDP growth of 7.6% in Q2 2008. This is in line with consistent GDP growth in the last few years, which has  resulted in Slovakia having one of the highest GDP growth rates in Europe. GDP growth has been, in part, supported by increased spending, while increases to wages have slightly outstripped increases in production output, and further decreasing unemployment has also facilitated this.

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BIG BOX Poland Q3 2008

The third quarter of 2008 brought a lot of uncertainty in terms of the further development of Polish property market. The global financial crisis, by no means, is expected to harm to some extend, the Polish economy and as a consequence, the development of new warehouse and logistic projects.

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Warsaw Office Market View Q3 2008

The demand for modern office space in Warsaw has remained at a relatively high level from the beginning of the year resulting in a strong take up of 381,000 sq m so far in 2008.

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Living Residential Warsaw Autumn 2008

The residential market in Poland is currently facing a period of adjustments of apartment prices in relation to potential buyers’ creditworthiness and financial standing.

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BIG BOX Slovakia Q3 2008

Total take-up for 2008 reached 264,896 sq m in Q3 2008. This means that take-up has now surpassed total take-up for the whole of 2007 (253,000 sqm) and has surpassed take-up in the same three quarters of last year by 37%.

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Budapest Offices Market View Q3 2008

Growth in the volume of stock remained strong in Q3 with 70,300 sq m of new deliveries. Year-to-date completion is 47% higher than last year.

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BIG BOX Hungary Q3 2008

In Q3 2008 the modern industrial stock in Hungary grew to in excess of 1.3 m sq m. New supply in Q3 reached 51,700 sq m which is almost three times as high as in the same quarter of 2007.

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Prague Offices Market View Q3 2008

Total modern office stock within Prague comprises of 69.3% new build and 30.7% refurbished stock. The majority of office space in the pipeline is new built, therefore, its share of the total stock will continuously increase in the future.

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BIG BOX Czech Republic Q3 2008

Total take-up in the Czech Republic remained strong and reached 178,000 sq m, representing a slight decrease of 13% q-o-q and 8% decrease y-o-y.

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CEE Office Market Index Q3 2008

CEE weighted capital values retained their positive year-on-year (y-o-y) growth, but the growth rate declined from 35.1% in q2 2008 to 5.6% in q3 2008. The q3 results marked the second consecutive quarterly decline this year.

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